According to Okeyo, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua delivered an estimated 3.5 million votes to Ruto during the last election—a massive contribution that significantly boosted his path to power.
On the other hand, former President Uhuru Kenyatta is said to have influenced around 1 million votes in favor of opposition leader late Raila Odinga.
These numbers, Okeyo argues, paint a clear picture of just how decisive Mt Kenya’s political alignment can be.
However, he warns that these once-reliable votes are now increasingly uncertain, posing a serious challenge for Ruto as he eyes re-election.
“Without 4.5 million votes, you are already waking up to a potential loss,” Okeyo stated, emphasizing that the President cannot afford to ignore shifting political loyalties.
His remarks suggest that the fallout between Ruto and Gachagua, coupled with lingering influence from Uhuru, could dramatically reshape the electoral landscape.
The analyst’s comments come at a time when political tensions within key alliances continue to simmer, with cracks emerging in previously solid support bases.
Observers note that maintaining unity in Mt Kenya could prove decisive, especially given its reputation as a vote-rich region that often swings national outcomes.
Okeyo’s warning serves as both a political reality check and a strategic alert: without consolidating support from influential figures and regions, even incumbents face steep odds.
As the 2027 race slowly takes shape, the battle for numbers—and loyalty—has already begun, with high stakes for all contenders involved.
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